New Delhi: India is expected to get below-average monsoon rains this year with precipitation less than 90% of the long-period average (LPA), the official weather forecaster said Friday, downgrading its earlier forecast for 92% LPA.Notably, the monsoon core zone, which comprises rainfed agricultural areas, is likely to get below-normal rainfall with precipitation less than 94% of the LPA, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, sparking concern about pulses and oilseeds production during the main planting season, potentially impacting farmer incomes and broader consumption besides exerting inflationary pressures on the economy."Monsoon rainfall from June to September will be 'below normal' and is likely to be 90% of the long-period average," M Ravichandran, secretary at the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said at a media briefing, citing IMD's forecast.The government agency expects rainfall during the June to September monsoon season to be less than 92% LPA over northwest India, and less than 94% of LPA over central India and southern peninsula. However, northeast India is expected to get rainfall in the range of 94-106% of LPA.The southwest monsoon is expected to touch the extreme parts of the southern Indian peninsula and some parts of northeast India in the next seven days, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD.Farm Output ConcernsAccording to the weather office, ENSO-neutral conditions are currently evolving towards El Niño conditions over the Equatorial Pacific, indicating the development of El Niño conditions during the southeast monsoon season.India gets 75-80% of its annual rainfall during the four-month long monsoon season, accounting for more than half of its foodgrain production. For major monsoon or kharif crops such as paddy, cotton, pulses and oilseeds, the distribution and timing of rainfall are critical as any inconsistency in precipitation could weigh on sowing decisions.Below-average rainfall could constrain farm output, accelerate food inflation, and dent farmer incomes, squeezing demand in rural India for fast-moving consumer goods, motorcycles, tractors, and other goods.IMD’s latest forecast comes during a period of intense turmoil in the global economy, particularly due to the Iran war, affecting countries such as India.The war has severely upset supply chains, triggering a surge in input costs across industries. For farmers, who may face disruption in fertiliser supplies, deficient rains will deal another blow.In June, above-normal heatwave conditions are expected over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, besides isolated areas of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. Below-normal heatwave days are expected in Rajasthan and Jharkhand.
Dry Days Ahead: Monsoon likely to be below normal
India anticipates below-average monsoon rains this year, with precipitation expected to be less than 90% of the long-period average. This forecast raises concerns for agricultural output, particularly for pulses and oilseeds. The situation could affect farmer incomes and consumer prices. The India Meteorological Department's prediction highlights potential challenges for the nation's food security and economic stability.
TL;DRAI
India's IMD downgraded its 2026 monsoon forecast to below 90% of LPA, citing developing El Niño conditions. Constrained kharif output risks food inflation and rural demand contraction, compounding input cost pressures from global supply chain disruptions.
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