Saudi Arabia shifts oil exports to the Suez Canal amid regional tensions. WTI reaching $110 in July 2026 at 9.6% YES.

Houthi rebels block Saudi shipping in the Red Sea. Targeting shipping by July 31 at 49.5% YES; by August 31 at 62.5% YES.

Even a brief closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, now a crucial alternative supply route, will significantly exacerbate the oil deficit.