US and Iran exchange strikes over the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic normalization by August 31 at 15.5% YES.

US-Iran tensions escalate as Trump ends agreement and military actions increase. Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by August 31 at 22.5% YES.

US resumes aggressive actions against Iran amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. Full airspace closure by July 31 at 23% YES.

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions. Traffic normalization by August 31 at 19.5% YES.

Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions. Traffic returns to normal by August 31 at 19.5% YES.

US and Iran exchanged fire over the Strait of Hormuz. US-Iran deal with reconstruction funding in 2026 at 32% YES.

US launches new strikes on Iran after it closes the Strait of Hormuz. US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 16.5% YES.

US conducts military strikes against Iran. US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 16.5% YES.

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil supply. Traffic returning to normal by August 31 at 16.5% YES.

US resumes military strikes on Iran amid tensions. Nuclear deal by August 13, 2026 at 2.8% YES.

US-Iran tensions escalate as Trump insists the Strait of Hormuz is open. Fewer than 150 ships transiting the strait between July 6-12 at 84.2% YES.

US-Iran tensions rise after military strikes end June ceasefire. Next diplomatic meeting in UAE by September 30, 2026 at 0.5% YES.

The United States launched a fresh round of strikes against Iran on Sunday (July 12), saying the attacks were aimed at degrading Tehran's ability to target civilian mariners and…

Hormuz traffic hits multi-week low due to US-Iran strikes. Iranian regime fall by end of 2026 at 8.5% YES.

US, Iran exchange strikes over control of Strait of Hormuz. Prediction market shows low odds of normalization by July 31.

US and Iran exchange strikes over the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic normalization by August 31 at 15.5% YES.

US assumes control of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran strikes. Traffic returns to normal by August 31 at 15.5% YES.

US-Iran ceasefire collapses, escalating tensions at the Strait of Hormuz. Fewer than 150 ships transiting the strait priced at 63.3% YES.