OECD warns of ‘dark scenario’ if Gulf energy crisis drags on

OECD cuts 2026 global growth forecasts over Mideast war fallout

OECD cuts 2026 growth to 2.8% baseline, 2.1% if Middle East conflict persists—recession risk especially for Asia. Energy inflation could add 0.4-1.3 pp and force 0.5-0.75 pp rate hikes, compressing IT capex budgets across enterprises.