The OECD has downgraded its global growth outlook, warning that rising energy prices, geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation are weighing on the world economy and could push several countries into recession if disruptions continue.
In its quarterly update, the organisation, which represents 38 industrialised countries, forecasts global economic growth of 2.8% in 2026, down from its previous estimate of 2.9%.
However, if the conflict continues into 2027, global growth could slow to 2.1%, the OECD said. That would be well below the average annual growth rate of 3.4% recorded between 2013 and 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic.
"The longer the disruptions last, the greater the economic and social costs will be," the OECD's chief economist, Stefano Scarpetta, said in the report.
He warned that many countries could face recession, while weaker investment spending — including in energy-intensive industries and artificial intelligence — would likely lead to higher unemployment.
