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Iran and US exchange air strikes near Strait of Hormuz, escalating conflict
Iran and the US exchanged air strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, raising tensions. US invasion of Iran by 2027 at 15.5% YES.
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US aircraft shot down over Iran amid escalating conflict
A U.S. aircraft was shot down over Iran, raising tensions. Iran closes its airspace by May 31 at 6.1% YES; strike by Europe on Iran by June at 3.2% YES.
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US warns Iran of military action if ceasefire deal rejected
US warns Iran of military action if ceasefire deal is rejected. Invasion before 2027 at 16.5% YES; new agreement by June 7 at 59.5% YES.
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US strikes on Iran escalate tensions, impact Trump presidency and war markets
US military strikes on Iran escalate tensions. Trump out as President before 2027 at 10.5% YES; US declares war on Iran by 2026 at 6.5% YES.
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Iran conflict triggers major energy crisis, disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping
Iran conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping. Iranian regime falls by June 30 at 2.4% YES; US-Iran ceasefire extension by June 7 at 56.5% YES.
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US-Iran tensions rise as Aguilar hints at strategic escalation in Strait of Hormuz
US-Iran tensions escalate as Aguilar hints at military moves. Troop withdrawal from Iran by June 30 at 46% YES, oil sanction relief at 56.5% YES, uranium enrich
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Iran proposes control over Strait of Hormuz in new US deal
Iran proposed control over the Strait of Hormuz in a new US deal. Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30 at 55% YES.
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US maintains hardline stance on Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
US maintains hardline stance on Iran amid tensions. Trump agreeing to Iranian demands by June 30 at 32.5% YES.
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Iran-US tensions highlight military strain, potential for further escalation
Iran-US tensions highlight military strain. US invasion of Iran before 2027 priced at 17.5% YES, while Trump agreeing to troop withdrawal by June 30 is at 23% Y
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US missile strike disables ship in Gulf of Oman amid Iran tensions
US missile strike disables ship in Gulf of Oman. Transit of 20 ships through Strait of Hormuz by May 31 at 10% YES.
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Iran and US exchange air strikes near Strait of Hormuz, escalating conflict
Iran and the US exchanged air strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, raising tensions. US invasion of Iran by 2027 at 15.5% YES.
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US strikes Iranian targets along Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
US strikes Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz. US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 15.5% YES.
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US strikes Iranian military sites, escalating tensions in Strait of Hormuz
US strikes Iranian military sites, escalating tensions in the region. Invasion of Iran before 2027 at 15.5% YES.
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US carries out self-defense strikes against Iranian drones and missiles targeting Kuwait, Bahrain
US forces struck Iranian drones/missiles targeting Kuwait and Bahrain. US invasion of Iran at 17.5% YES; US strikes 8 countries in 2026 at 25.9% YES.
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Trump claims responsibility for starting US-Iran war, denies Israeli influence
Trump claims responsibility for starting the US-Iran war, raising invasion odds. US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 17.5% YES.