## Market Snapshot
The prediction market for “Will Trump agree to Iranian demands by June 30?” shows a 32% YES probability. Meanwhile, the market for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?” reflects a 6% YES probability, indicating a low likelihood of resolution.
## Key Takeaways
– The US stance against private deals for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz appears consistent with a hardline approach, suggesting ongoing military tension. – Markets suggest a decreased likelihood that Trump will agree to Iranian demands by June 30, reflecting diplomatic challenges. – The probability of normalizing traffic through the Strait by June 15 is low, indicating persistent commercial and geopolitical disruptions.
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