US and Iran are "very close" to a ceasefire extension deal, boosting market confidence; ceasefire extension by June 7 at 59% YES.

$6,968,011 has traded on "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefi..." as of May 26, 2026. View real-time odds or trade on The World's Largest Prediction Mark...

Iran accuses the US of ceasefire violations amid new strikes. Ceasefire extension by May 26 drops to 1.7% YES, June 7 remains at 63.5% YES.

US and Iran reached a tentative deal pending Trump's approval. Agreement or ceasefire by June 7 at 53% YES.