South African Reserve Bank set to raise rates for first time since 2023 amid Iran war inflation

Reserve Bank hikes interest rate for first time since 2023 as oil shock, inflation risks mount

South Africa's Reserve Bank hiked the repo rate 25bp to 7% — first increase since 2023 — as oil near $100/barrel drove CPI to 4% and fuel inflation surged 11.4%. The move tightens business credit and household budgets; the bank's models project one more hike this quarter, with a worst case of three additional increases if inflation tops 6%.