Trump suggests Fed rate cuts may be delayed until the Iran conflict ends. No rate cuts in 2026 at 68.5% YES.

Trump considers military strikes on Iran as Israel prepares for conflict. Permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 13.5% YES.

Trump and Xi agree to keep the Strait of Hormuz open amid US-Iran tensions. US-Iran nuclear deal by June at 21% YES.

Trump warns Iran, escalating tensions and reducing peace deal prospects. Israel-Iran peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 12.5% YES.

Trump hints at military action against Iran, reducing peace deal odds. Permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 12.5% YES.

Trump discusses resuming combat operations against Iran. Iran closes its airspace by May 31 at 39.5% YES; US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 31.5% YES.

Trump hints at further US military action against Iran. Permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran by June 30, 2026 at 11.5% YES.

Trump cancels scheduled military strike on Iran, easing tensions. Iran closes its airspace by May 31 at 40% YES.

Trump suggests Fed rate cuts may be delayed until the Iran conflict ends. No rate cuts in 2026 at 68.5% YES.

Kalshi and Polymarket traders put $42M+ on a Fed hold June 17 as markets signal no cuts through 2026 amid 3.8% inflation.

Fed minutes show growing support for rate hikes. No Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 65.7% YES.

Trump warns of potential military action against Iran. Diplomatic talks with Iran by May 22 at 0.9% YES.