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The European Central Bank is likely to deliver a 25 basis-point rate hike at its meeting concluding today. But while the direction of travel may be clear for now, the path beyond September is anything but.
The ECB is likely to keep its powder dry beyond today, with the path thereafter determined by how the economy and, above all, inflation respond to the renewed energy shock. The key message from the Governing Council is therefore likely to be hawkish: further hike(s) may be warranted if inflation risks intensify, but policymakers will want to retain flexibility rather than pre-commit to any specific policy path.
There is only modest evidence so far that inflation expectations are becoming less firmly anchored, although there may be growing concern that second-round effects may eventually turn a temporary energy shock into a more persistent inflation problem. The challenge for the ECB is that the economy has so far proven more resilient than expected, making an upside revision to its growth projections probable. Output rose more than anticipated during the second quarter, and business surveys are suggesting solid momentum ahead.
That resilience matters. A weaker economy would give policymakers more room to look through an energy-driven inflation spike. A more robust economy, by contrast, makes it harder to assume that higher energy prices may simply wash through absent affecting wages, services prices and broader inflation behaviour.
