A strong El Niño in late 2026 could push renewable generation curtailment in Brazil to 25%, with solar PV curtailment potentially reaching 40%. Additional thermal dispatch could further increase PV curtailment to 47%, raising financial risks for renewable projects.
A strong El Niño event in late 2026 could push renewable generation curtailment in Brazil to 25%, up from 17% in Aurora Energy Research’s base-case scenario.
Solar PV generation could face curtailment of up to 40%, while onshore wind curtailment could reach 21%, according to the consultancy’s nodal modeling. The analysis considers curtailment related only to energy constraints and system reliability requirements.
Weather and dispatch conditions could combine to increase pressure on renewable generation. Under the El Niño scenario, the capacity factor for onshore wind in Brazil’s Northeast would rise from 47% to 52%, while medium- and long-term hydrological inflows in the region would fall from 53% to 40% of the historical average.
Higher renewable output would therefore coincide with lower water availability, increasing the need for generation curtailment.
