In a new weekly update for pv magazine, Solcast, a DNV company, reports that a developing El Niño is expected to strengthen through 2026, shifting global solar irradiance patterns with regional gains in India, eastern Australia, and parts of Africa and Central America, and losses in South America and East Asia. These impacts reflect established historical patterns from past strong events, where circulation changes redistribute cloud cover and rainfall rather than uniformly increasing or decreasing solar resource.
A developing El Niño is expected to strengthen through 2026 and reshape solar resource globally, according to analysis using the Solcast API. Analysis of past strong El Niño events from July to September shows clear regional differences in irradiance, with higher than normal solar resource in most of India, and parts of Australia, equatorial Africa and Central America, and reductions across southern South America and East Asia. These historical patterns are broadly consistent with the regional direction of current seasonal forecasts, indicating likely trends for solar performance in the coming months as the current event develops.
Sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions show that El Niño is already underway, as has been declared by meteorological organisations around the world. The Niño 3.4 index has exceeded 0.8 C , showing warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific.
