Analysis by Aurora Energy Research indicates curtailment in Brazil could drop by 8 to 12 percentage points by the end of the decade, down from 21% in 2025.
Curtailment in Brazil could begin to ease towards the end of the decade as new transmission infrastructure comes online, according to Aurora Energy Research.
Curtailment hit 21% in Brazil in 2025 and has become one of the main challenges facing the country’s electricity system.
Aurora Energy Research has developed a nodal modeling framework focused on analyzing curtailment at the asset level. The model simulates the operation of Brazil’s electricity grid with hourly granularity, incorporating information on transmission infrastructure and electrical constraints.
According to the company’s projections, curtailment levels are expected to remain high in the short and medium term. A more significant reduction is anticipated only toward the end of the 2020s, driven by transmission network expansion, growing electricity demand, and increased deployment of battery energy storage systems.
