Russia’s oil machine just got a second wind. Crude and condensate production rose by roughly 100,000 barrels per day in July, pushing total output back above the psychologically important 9 million bpd threshold.
That’s a notable recovery from June, when Ukrainian drone strikes on key refinery infrastructure reportedly hammered production down to around 8.86 million bpd.
The numbers behind the rebound
Combined crude and condensate output reportedly hit approximately 10.46 million bpd in July, marking a 0.3% increase month-over-month.
The International Energy Agency has been telling a more cautious story. The IEA forecasts Russian oil output will average just 8.9 million bpd across the full year of 2026, with an even lower projection of 8.8 million bpd for 2027.
