Russia’s western ports are pumping out crude at a pace not seen since before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Loadings from Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk are on track to hit between 2.7 and 2.8 million barrels per day in June, a record that blows past May’s 2.5 million bpd and makes earlier forecasts of just 1.7 million bpd look almost quaint.
Russia’s total seaborne crude shipments have climbed to a four-week average of 4.13 million bpd through the end of June, the highest level since Moscow sent tanks rolling into Ukraine in early 2022.
Why the surge: drones, not strategy
Multiple Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out domestic refining capacity across Russia, forcing crude that would normally be processed at home into export channels instead. Earlier forecasts had pegged June western-port loadings at roughly 1.7 million bpd, based on the assumption that Russian refineries would be operating at planned capacity. The gap between that forecast and reality, roughly a million barrels per day, is essentially the drone dividend. Crude that was supposed to become gasoline and diesel for the Russian domestic market is instead sailing toward buyers in Asia and elsewhere.
More barrels, less money
