Russia’s oil production machine is showing real cracks. Crude output fell to approximately 8.8 million barrels per day in April, according to the International Energy Agency, marking a decline of 460,000 bpd compared to the same period last year and the lowest level in roughly a year.
The primary culprit isn’t OPEC+ quotas or voluntary production cuts. It’s Ukrainian drones systematically dismantling Russian refining and export infrastructure, facility by facility.
The damage on the ground
May brought a new escalation. Ukraine struck 18 oil and gas facilities during the month, the highest monthly total in 2026.
The results have been severe. At certain points, over 10% of Russia’s national refining capacity was offline. In central Russia, where refining infrastructure exceeds 83 million tons per year of capacity, the disruptions were even more concentrated, with localized impacts exceeding 25%.
