Russia’s oil machine is breaking down. June 2026 crude production fell to 8.86 million barrels per day, marking the lowest output the country has posted in over two years, as relentless Ukrainian drone strikes continue to systematically dismantle the energy infrastructure that funds Moscow’s war effort.
The scale of the damage
Since 2022, Ukrainian forces have struck Russian oil facilities more than 300 times. By early July 2026, roughly 42.7% of Russia’s refining capacity had been disabled. Crude processing into fuel dropped approximately 25% year-over-year in June, falling to 3.95 million barrels per day. That represents the lowest refining output Russia has recorded in over 20 years.
In June, Russia reduced crude oil exports to prioritize domestic refining and shore up fuel supplies in regions already experiencing shortages. The country’s output is running roughly 690,000 barrels per day below its OPEC+ quota in recent months, a gap that widened in June to approximately 910,000 bpd below the cartel’s allocation.
May 2026 saw record strike volumes targeting Russian energy infrastructure, with production dipping as low as roughly 9.009 million bpd. June’s 8.86 million bpd figure represents only a slight uptick.
