The crowd has spoken, and the crowd thinks the Federal Reserve is going to sit on its hands. Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market, currently prices a 56% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at the September FOMC meeting.
Shares representing a “no change” outcome are trading at 57 cents each, with the market generating over $2 million in trading volume since it launched on May 13. That’s not trivial engagement for a single policy question months in advance.
The rate hike that might not happen
While the majority bet is on the Fed doing nothing, a 25 basis point increase sits at 37% probability — roughly one in three traders thinks the Fed will actually raise rates further.
The May Consumer Price Index came in at 4.2% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target. The labor market, meanwhile, continues to show resilience.
