Fed expected to hold rates steady at the June 17 meeting. Market at 99.4% YES.
Market Snapshot
Polymarket data indicates a 99.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate range at the upcoming June 17 meeting. This reflects a near-complete pricing out of any rate cut scenarios.
Key Takeaways
Market data suggests a strong expectation for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the June meeting.
The likelihood of a rate cut has been significantly reduced, consistent with the Fed’s focus on inflation control.
Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75% in June. Pause-Pause-Pause outcome at 99.2% YES.
US stock futures and treasury yields rise as the Fed signals a strong likelihood of holding rates steady. Pause-Pause-Pause in…
Fed minutes show growing support for rate hikes. No Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 65.7% YES.
Fed rate cut probability before 2027 drops to 32.9%, the lowest in months. No Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 69.8% YES.
Paulson affirms no urgency for rate cuts. Rate cut by June 2026 at 1.2% YES.
Fed minutes show openness to rate hikes if inflation stays high. Rate hike in 2026 now at 31.5% YES.
