US stock futures, treasury yields rise on Fed rate hold expectation

Market Snapshot

The “Fed Decisions (Mar–Jun)” market currently prices a 99.2% YES chance of a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence in upcoming meetings. This is an increase from 99% just 24 hours ago. The market for a Fed rate decrease by 25 bps after the June meeting is priced at 0.2% YES, reflecting low expectations for a rate cut.

Key Takeaways

Recent activity suggests increased confidence in a Fed rate hold in June, consistent with a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome.

Treasury yields and stock futures have risen, indicating market optimism or risk revaluation.