The crowd has spoken, and it’s not what rate-cut hopefuls wanted to hear. Polymarket traders are now pricing in a 79% probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver exactly zero interest rate cuts in 2026, a stark contrast to the optimism that prevailed just a few months ago.
The dedicated prediction market, titled “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?,” has attracted over $40.8 million in trading volume.
From hope to hawkish reality
In mid-April, Polymarket traders gave only a 43% chance that the Fed would hold rates flat through the year. By late April, that figure had climbed to 58%. Now it’s sitting near 79%, and the trend line looks like a one-way escalator.
The shift didn’t happen in a vacuum. May’s inflation reading came in at 4.1%, a number that effectively killed any remaining dovish fantasies.
