Traders betting on the Federal Reserve’s next move have largely made up their minds. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s roughly an 82% probability that the Fed will keep its benchmark federal funds rate parked at 3.50%-3.75% when the FOMC convenes on July 29.
The numbers tell a clear story
The Fed held rates steady at its June 17 meeting in a unanimous decision, and the market consensus is that July will be a carbon copy. The CME FedWatch data puts the hold probability at 82%, but prediction markets are even more convinced. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are showing odds between 89% and 93% that rates won’t budge.
The July meeting won’t include the Summary of Economic Projections, the quarterly release where Fed officials update their forecasts and the famous “dot plot.” Historically, meetings without SEP releases tend to be quieter affairs, meaning less incentive to make dramatic moves.
The June dot plot showed the median projection for the year-end 2026 federal funds rate ticked up to 3.8%, which is above the current range. The hawkish tone from the June meeting included what analysts described as a removal of the Fed’s easing bias, replaced with language emphasizing price stability above all else.
