Federal Reserve's June meeting looms large as markets brace for updated economic projections

The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, scheduled for June 16-17, 2026, arrives at a moment when markets are desperate for clarity and almost certain they won’t get it. The federal funds rate currently sits in the 3.5%-3.75% range, a level the Fed held steady at its April 28-29 meeting. And if market pricing is any guide, it’s staying right there.

The probability of a rate cut at the June meeting is roughly 3-4%. In English: don’t hold your breath.

Why this meeting matters more than most

Not every FOMC meeting is created equal. The June gathering is one of four per year that includes the Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP, the document where Fed officials publish their individual forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and the path of interest rates.

The SEP also contains the infamous “dot plot,” a chart showing where each policymaker expects the federal funds rate to land over the next few years.