Kevin Warsh Talks Tough, Fed Holds — But Crypto Prediction Markets Aren't Buying A July Hike Yet

Cryptocurrency bettors aren't expecting any change to the Federal Reserve’s policy in July, following the central bank’s unanimous decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged on Wednesday.

Polyamarket Projects Rates To Remain Steady

Traders on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket believed there was roughly an 80% chance that rates would remain unchanged during the next meeting on July 29, while the chances of a 25 basis point increase stood at 25%.

Bets in favor of rates falling below the current 3.50%–3.75% range remained very low. Over $11.8 million has already been wagered on the outcome, making it one of the most traded contracts on Polymarket.

These predictions broadly aligned with the CME FedWatch tracker, which currently estimates a 70% chance of rates remaining steady in July. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike rose to almost 30%, up from 8.5% the previous day.