Kevin Warsh steps up to the biggest microphone in global finance this week, and his first move will almost certainly be to do nothing at all.
The new Federal Reserve Chair, sworn in on May 22, 2026, is set to lead his inaugural Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 16-17. Markets are pricing in roughly a 96% probability that the federal funds rate will stay parked at its current target range of 3.50%-3.75%.
Why the hold matters more than it looks
Warsh inherits a Fed that’s been wrestling with stubborn inflation, driven in large part by elevated energy prices. The 3.50%-3.75% range represents a series of cuts from prior highs, but the path lower has stalled.
Warsh succeeds Jerome Powell, whose tenure was defined by an aggressive hiking cycle followed by a cautious easing phase. Warsh, a former Fed governor and Morgan Stanley executive, is expected to bring a different cadence.
