Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Federal Reserve chair ended exactly how markets expected. The committee voted unanimously on June 17 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change.
The rate decision and what the dots are telling us
Warsh, who was sworn in as the 17th Fed chair on May 22, 2026, inherited an inflation problem that refuses to cooperate. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, recently climbed above 4%. That’s double the central bank’s 2% target.
The FOMC acknowledged “persistent inflation pressures” tied to economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Nine out of eighteen officials now project at least one rate hike before the end of 2026. That’s half the committee leaning hawkish, a meaningful pivot from any previous easing bias that markets had been pricing in.
