The crowd thinks the Fed might actually raise rates this year. Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction platform, is pricing in a 57-61% probability of at least one interest rate hike in 2026.
What the numbers actually say
The dedicated Polymarket contract tracking this question has drawn roughly $4 million in trading volume as of July 8. For the next FOMC meeting scheduled July 29-30, traders are assigning a 76-78% probability that the Fed holds steady. A 25 basis point hike gets about 21-24% odds.
The year-end picture is where things get interesting. The most popular prediction for where the federal funds rate lands by December 2026 is 3.75%, with about 37% of traders backing that outcome. Traders are putting 78-80% odds on zero rate cuts happening this entire year.
Why prediction markets matter here
