Bottom lines up front
The Ankara summit will test whether NATO can convert three years of pledges into reportable delivery amid strained transatlantic trust.Turkey remains the only major European NATO ally with an advanced defense industry still excluded from key EU funding and procurement mechanisms.Instability on NATO’s southern flank, exposed by the Iran war, demands the Alliance treat the region as a strategic priority, not an afterthought.
As the Ankara summit approaches, the transatlantic Alliance faces one of its most difficult tests. Donald Trump’s threats to withdraw the United States from NATO, demands over Greenland, unmet requests for support related to the war in Iran, and a wildcard approach to the Ukrainian peace process have all deeply damaged transatlantic trust. Against this backdrop, the summit’s single greatest deliverable would be simply for it to take place with Trump’s participation and a strong reaffirmation of commitment to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
The summit is not expected to produce major innovations or sharp policy shifts. NATO and allied officials have framed it primarily as an implementation summit following up on the summit in The Hague, although stronger political consultation on the southern flank—particularly after the Iran war—could emerge as a notable development.
