THE FOG OF THE IRAN MOU. President Donald Trump and administration officials are hailing the new memorandum of understanding to end the Iran war. But no one outside the small circle of negotiators on both sides has seen the document. Reports on what it contains are contradictory and confusing. It appears the confusion might last all week, since Trump said Monday that the MOU will probably be made public on Friday, after a formal signing ceremony in Geneva.So no one in the public can say what is in the deal. But after listening to the president’s statements as well as those of senior administration officials who spoke with reporters after the announcement, it appears best to keep expectations low.The most basic point to make is that it does not appear that the MOU — which is just a page and a half long — is an agreement to settle the issues that led to war in Iran. Rather, it appears to be an agreement to guide later negotiations to end the war. At best, the world is in for two more months of negotiations.
What the current MOU appears to concretely accomplish is to undo two major developments from the start of the war: Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S.’s imposition of a blockade on Iran. Under the deal, it appears the strait will be reopened and the blockade lifted.
