Trump vows to hit Iran 'very hard' after ceasefire deemed 'meaningless.' Ceasefire by June 30 at 31.5% YES.
Trump vows military action against Iran; prediction markets price ceasefire at 31.5% likelihood amid Strait of Hormuz volatility. Energy cost escalation directly pressures cloud infrastructure capex and supply chain resilience—critical risk for IT budget allocation in H2.
https://www.newsweek.com/topic/donald-trump
Market Snapshot
The “Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?” market is currently priced at 31.5% YES, up from 20% a day ago. The “Iranian regime survival” market shows 98.2% YES, slightly down from 99% previously. The “US-Iran diplomatic meeting predictions” market is at 67.1% YES, up from 65%.
Key Takeaways
Trump’s statement appears to decrease the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire being announced by June 30.
Trump plans new military strikes as US-Iran talks end without resolution. Ceasefire by June 30 at 36% YES.
Trump is close to ordering strikes on Iranian infrastructure. Ceasefire by June 30 at 19.5% YES.
Trump considers a ceasefire extension and nuclear talks with Iran. Ceasefire by June 7 priced at 54.5% YES, troop withdrawal by…
Trump toughens Iran deal terms, reducing agreement odds. Ceasefire by June 7 at 38% YES, Trump agreeing to Iranian demands by…
Trump announced an imminent Middle East ceasefire amid hostilities. Ceasefire by June 30 at 12.5% YES.
Iran and the US negotiate a 60-day ceasefire extension. Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30 at 41.5% YES.
