Trump announced an imminent Middle East ceasefire amid hostilities. Ceasefire by June 30 at 12.5% YES.
https://time.com/article/2026/06/04/trump-executive-order-schedule-policy-career-classification-fire-federal-workers-at-will/
Market Snapshot
The “Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?” market is currently priced at 12.5% for a YES outcome. This represents a significant shift from previous levels, with the most notable move being an 18-point drop earlier today.
Key Takeaways
Trump’s announcement appears to be consistent with increasing YES pricing in the June 30 ceasefire market.
Trump plans new military strikes as US-Iran talks end without resolution. Ceasefire by June 30 at 36% YES.
Trump considers a ceasefire extension and nuclear talks with Iran. Ceasefire by June 7 priced at 54.5% YES, troop withdrawal by…
Trump is close to ordering strikes on Iranian infrastructure. Ceasefire by June 30 at 19.5% YES.
Iran and the US negotiate a 60-day ceasefire extension. Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30 at 41.5% YES.
Qatari negotiators arrive in Tehran to finalize a US-Iran ceasefire deal. Ceasefire announcement by June 30 at 19.5% YES.
Trump predicts a peace deal with Iran in 'two or three days.' Diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 at 67.5% YES.
