Market Snapshot
The market for an “Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026” is currently priced at 1.9% YES, down from 3% a day ago. The market for Israel striking four countries in 2026 stands at 41.9% YES, up from 35% in the last 24 hours.
Key Takeaways
The recent Israeli attacks on Baalbek and Nabatieh appear to decrease the likelihood of a permanent peace deal with Hezbollah by June 15, 2026.
The strikes suggest a breakdown in ceasefire conditions, consistent with a reduced probability of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension.
