Iran reportedly shot down a U.S. helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. Regime survival at 98.6% YES.
Market Snapshot
The “Iran Regime Survival” market currently prices a 98.6% YES, up from 98% 24 hours ago. The “Fall of the Iranian Regime” market shows a 12.5% YES probability, slightly increased from 12% over the same period.
Key Takeaways
The report of Iran shooting down a U.S. helicopter indicates heightened military tensions, impacting regime stability perceptions.
U.S. government statements on potential response actions appear consistent with increased risk of military escalation.
US strikes Iran after a helicopter incident. Iranian regime survival at 98.8% YES, leadership change by end of 2026 at 3.5% YES.
Trump vows to intensify bombing of Iran after a helicopter was downed. Iranian regime survival now at 98.6% YES.
Iran shot down a US Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 18.5% YES.
Iran targets U.S. bases with missile and drone strikes. Iranian regime survival at 98.8% YES, U.S. invasion before 2027 at 17.5%…
Iran conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping. Iranian regime falls by June 30 at 2.4% YES; US-Iran ceasefire extension by…
US confirms completion of strikes on Iranian military targets. Iranian regime survival at 97.8% YES, while airspace closure by…
