China’s export engine is picking up speed. A Reuters poll of 32 economists projects the country’s May 2026 exports grew 15% year-on-year, a step up from the already-strong 14.1% recorded in April.
The drivers are twofold: overseas buyers rushing to place orders ahead of anticipated energy and transportation cost increases, and a relentless global appetite for semiconductors and AI components.
Front-loaded orders and the Middle East factor
A significant chunk of the export strength traces back to “front-loading.” Buyers outside China are pulling orders forward, locking in current prices before potential disruptions hit. The catalyst is ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East, specifically Gulf and Iran-related conflict. When energy prices look like they might spike, shipping costs tend to follow.
The semiconductor pipeline is running hot