China just posted another month of trade numbers that make economists look pessimistic. June exports and imports both came in above consensus forecasts, continuing a trend that has turned the country’s trade balance into a case study on what happens when the entire world wants AI chips at the same time.
The numbers behind the numbers
To understand June, you need to look at May first. China’s exports in May surged 19.4% year-on-year in dollar terms, blowing past economist forecasts of roughly 15%. Imports were even more dramatic, climbing 27.4% against expectations of 25%.
The trade surplus for May landed at $105.43 billion. For June, forecasts had anticipated export growth moderating to around 18.2% and import growth settling near 24%, with the trade surplus widening to approximately $120.6 billion.
Here’s the thing. The headline growth rates look like a manufacturing renaissance, but the composition tells a different story. Integrated circuit exports in May jumped a staggering 110-111% in value terms. Volume growth, meanwhile, was a modest 6% or so.
