China just posted its best export month ever. May 2026 shipments hit $376.78 billion, a 19.4% year-on-year jump that blew past the 15% growth that a Reuters poll of 32 economists had predicted. For context, April’s already-solid 14.1% increase now looks like a warm-up act.
Front-running costs and feeding the AI machine
The first catalyst is old-fashioned fear. Escalating Middle Eastern tensions have pushed energy and shipping costs higher, prompting global buyers to pull orders forward.
The second catalyst is structural. Global appetite for semiconductors and AI-related components has turned China’s chip export sector into a rocket ship. Exports of integrated circuits surged 111% year-on-year in May. Computers and parts weren’t far behind, climbing 66%.
South Korea’s trade data reinforces the picture. Korean semiconductor shipments to China jumped 243% year-on-year in May, producing a $3.8 billion bilateral trade surplus for Seoul.
