The south-west monsoon remained strong to heavy over Kerala and Mahe through the first day of set (Thursday), but its advance to north along the west coast is expected to slow down markedly in the coming days.
According to guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), sprawling coastal metropolis of Mumbai on the west coast may have to wait until June 22 for seasonal rains, around 12 days behind normal schedule, before they lapse back to below-normal levels likely from June 29.
No low-pressure area
The principal factor behind the sluggish progress is the growing influence of El Niño. Rising atmospheric pressure is promoting subsidence, or sinking air, which suppresses cloud formation and rainfall. Monsoon rains thrive under low-pressure conditions, where warm, moisture-laden air rises, cools, and condenses into clouds.
Anchoring flows
