European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts says moisture carry in the atmosphere would be too low (yellow to brown) to trigger onset of monsoon rain over Mumbai around the normal date of June 10.
| Photo Credit:
www.tropicaltidbits.com
A western disturbance could bring rain to parts of Konkan-Mumbai and Gujarat over the next few days even as the monsoon continues its advance along the rest of west coast and across North-East India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.The western disturbance is expected to dip into the north-east Arabian Sea and draw energy from the warm waters off the Konkan-Mumbai coast to rain it down over the region. While it may generate moderate rain with isolated heavy spells, it remains unclear whether it will qualify as a monsoon onset event.Heavy Rain ForecastIsolated heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan and Goa and Madhya Maharashtra on Tuesday, and fairly widespread to widespread over the region during the following three days, before easing to isolated and scattered activity from Thursday. East Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada are expected to witness similar conditions over next seven days, while Saurashtra and Kutch could receive rainfall from Friday for up to three days.Limited moisture supportThe European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) too indicates the possibility of showers over Konkan and Mumbai during the next few days. However, it projects lighter rainfall than the IMD, and does not see the event as distinctly monsoonal. It suggests insufficient moisture transport to sustain widespread monsoon rainfall here even beyond June 10, the normal onset date for the metropolis.Monsoon advances Meanwhile, the IMD said the monsoon advanced on Monday into additional parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, as well as parts of Telangana. The northern limit now passes through Harnai and Solapur in Maharashtra; Kalaburagi in Karnataka; Nandyal in Andhra Pradesh; Chennai; and extends across North-East India through Kailashahar in Tripura; Lamding in Manipur; and North Lakhimpur in Assam.Conditions favourable The IMD said conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to advance further over the next two to three days into more parts of Maharashtra; Karnataka; Telangana; and Andhra Pradesh; remaining parts of Tamil Nadu; and parts of Chhattisgarh; Odisha; West Bengal; Sikkim; and the rest of the North-Eastern States. Published on June 8, 2026
