A new US tariff could pose a severe threat to Thai exports in the latter half of this year, causing fresh trade uncertainties, say economists and businesses.Thai export growth in the second half of 2026 could remain flat from last year if tariffs under Section 301 of the US Trade Act go ahead next month, said Nuttaporn Triratanasirikul, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research).
Section 301 authorises the US Trade Representative (USTR) to investigate and impose retaliatory tariffs or trade restrictions on countries that engage in “unfair, unreasonable” or discriminatory policies that burden US commerce.
These practices include excess manufacturing capacity, intellectual property violations, digital services taxes, and forced or child labour.
The USTR has singled out insufficient measures to prevent forced labour as justification for the new tariff. While forced labour might not exist in a particular country, some of its products could be penalised if their supply chain includes imports from other countries where forced labour is used.
The new tariff could replace the current Section 122 tariffs that expire on July 24 for imports from 59 countries and the EU. Those rates were imposed after the US Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs last year.
