Colombia will hold a presidential runoff on June 21, with a race between Iván Cepeda, a left-wing ally of Gustavo Petro, and Abelardo de la Espriella, a first-time candidate and representative of the far right. The outcome has direct implications for Brazil.
A Cepeda victory would keep Colombia as the main regional ally of Lula’s government, at a time when the left has lost ground in Latin America following conservative wins in Bolivia and Chile. Under Petro, Lula led the reactivation of the OTCA, which culminated in the Bogotá Declaration, and advanced Amazon cooperation and efforts to combat organized crime along the border.De la Espriella, compared to Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele and with no political background, advocates closer ties with the United States — which could undermine Brazilian partnerships in the Amazon and weaken multilateral mechanisms such as CELAC and OTCA. His profile is considered unpredictable even by conservative analysts.
Despite ideological differences, Itamaraty is betting on diplomatic pragmatism: Lula has already maintained functional relations with Rodrigo Paz and José Antonio Kast. A ministry official confirmed that the government will seek cordial relations regardless of the Colombian outcome.
