Hezbollah drone attacks prompt Israel to consider full military conquest in Lebanon

## Market Snapshot

The market for a permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah by May 31, 2026, has dropped to 0.5% YES. The market for Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon by June 30, 2026, stands at 6.5% YES, a decrease from 12% 24 hours ago.

## Key Takeaways

– The news of Hezbollah drone attacks appears to significantly decrease the likelihood of a permanent peace deal, as markets drop from 3% to 0.5% YES. – The possibility of Israel withdrawing from Lebanon by June 2026 suggests a decrease, with market pricing reflecting a decline from 12% to 6.5% YES. – The escalation of conflict is consistent with scenarios where Israel’s military presence in Lebanon is prolonged, affecting withdrawal expectations.

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