Rising medical costs, which are caused in part by the external trade pressure in the Gulf, are a key risk factor driving household debt and widening access inequality globally.
The financial strain on households from rising out-of-pocket healthcare costs could result in a shift toward lower-cost treatments or decisions to defer treatment. Credit: Lightspring via Shutterstock.com.
Blockades by both Iran and the US in the Strait of Hormuz, as they negotiate an end to the conflict, continue to drive up healthcare costs globally. The shock to global trade risks triggering a sustained period of higher medical inflation, while cost-of-living crises threaten healthcare affordability and consumer spending on health in H2 2026.
Rising medical costs, which are caused in part by the external trade pressure in the Gulf, are a key risk factor driving household debt and widening access inequality globally. Weaker economies may have a reduced capacity for public healthcare spending growth. Healthcare systems, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), may also struggle to absorb mounting costs while maintaining service quality. Meanwhile, the financial strain on households from rising out-of-pocket healthcare costs could result in a shift toward lower-cost treatments or decisions to defer treatment. Poorer patient outcomes would have negative long-term consequences for public health systems, which will have to deal with more severe and difficult-to-treat cases. Given the elevated geopolitical uncertainty, serious shortages of medical products in some countries can no longer be discounted. Certain products becoming more difficult to obtain in the coming months could exacerbate price increases.
