The agency now sees a 1.8 million barrel-per-day deficit in the third quarter, more than double its prior estimate, as Gulf output remains 8.3 mb/d below pre-war levels

Energy Information Administration estimates Middle East shut-ins averaged 5.5 million bpd in July

The IEA expects oil demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026 as high fuel prices and Strait of Hormuz disruptions weigh on consumption.

Agency now sees global supply averaging 102 million bpd this year