The Mecca defence pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan creates synergies that are not in India’s interest by and large, even if they do not impact India at the very outset.

A critical consequence is that Pakistani leadership may now price an escalation cheaper than earlier. This raises the likelihood of a crisis rather than a single campaign.

The deal, which establishes that an armed attack on one signatory will be treated as an attack on all three, risks drawing Islamabad deeper into Middle Eastern rivalries