Bond traders see over 33% chance of Federal Reserve rate hike this week

Prediction Market Traders Brace for Surprise Fed Rate Hike - Decrypt

Prediction markets now price 26.65% odds of 25bp Fed hike by July 29—up ~10 points in 24h per Polymarket—despite June inflation at 3.5%. Rate increases slow venture funding; managers expect tighter budgets and startup valuation pressure.