A Reuters poll of 104 economists produced a rare moment of total agreement: every single one expects the Federal Reserve to keep its federal funds rate parked at 3.50%-3.75% when the FOMC meets on July 28-29. The survey was conducted July 17-21.
But prediction markets are telling a different story. Polymarket is pricing in roughly 20% odds for a 25 basis point rate hike at the same meeting, with broader market-implied probabilities for at least one hike this year sitting in the 57-61% range.
The great divide between economists and traders
Of the 104 economists polled, 78 forecast the federal funds rate will remain unchanged through the end of 2026.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has maintained the current 3.50%-3.75% target range since early 2026. The Fed’s own dot plot tells a somewhat more hawkish tale, though. Nine of 18 Fed officials are anticipating at least one rate hike before the year is out.
