The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its June 17, 2026 meeting, and the overwhelming consensus among economists is that it’s going to stay right there for a while. A Reuters poll conducted between June 23-25 found that over 75% of economists expect no changes to rates for the remainder of the year.
The inflation picture keeps getting worse
Back in March 2026, inflation projections sat at a relatively manageable 2.7%. Fast forward to June, and those numbers have been revised sharply upward, with headline inflation now projected at 3.6% and core inflation at 3.3%.
The median projected federal funds rate for end-2026 was adjusted to 3.8%, which implies at least one 25 basis point hike could still be on the table later this year. The FOMC voted unanimously to hold steady this time, but the Summary of Economic Projections tells a more hawkish story than the headline decision suggests.
Policymakers have pointed to persistent price pressures, uneven economic growth, and labor market dynamics as the reasons for maintaining their restrictive stance.
