The entire financial world is stuck in a waiting room right now. CME’s FedWatch tool prices a 66% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, which sounds reassuring until you realize that leaves a one-in-three probability of a rate hike, and those are not the kind of odds that let anyone sleep well.
Traders across equities and crypto are effectively frozen in place. Tech stocks are already deep in correction territory, and the crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 29, firmly in “Fear” territory, down from 33 just a week ago. The mood is about as cheerful as a dentist’s waiting room.
The macro picture is a mess
Here’s the thing about a Fed decision week: the announcement itself is only half the story. The other half is everything happening around it, and right now, that backdrop looks like someone threw a jigsaw puzzle into a blender.
Meta, Microsoft, and Qualcomm all report earnings after market close today. Three of the biggest names in tech dropping results during the same week the Fed could surprise markets with a hike. That’s a lot of potential energy coiled into a very short timeframe.
