Polymarket bettors have cut the odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year to a record low as Senate negotiations over ethics provisions remain unresolved.

Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 have dropped from over 70% to between 24-48%, even as Trump lobbies senators ahead of the August recess

Polymarket odds on the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 rebounded to 45% on July 17, days after crashing to a record 24% low amid a Senate ethics fight.